The present disclosure relates generally to the field of system prediction and control. More particularly, the present disclosure relates to prediction and control of systems such as wind turbines and/or wind farms.
Wind power has emerged as a primary source of renewable energy. However, the wind power industry faces challenges in the area of turbine reliability. Some of these challenges are related to the high structural loads in the drive train of the wind turbines and the difficulty in predicting the electrical power output. The structural loads and related failure states may contribute to equipment manufacturers offering short warranties (e.g., two-year warranties) after which wind developers and power companies may expend significant resources to keep the turbines operational. Further, the difficulty in predicting wind turbine power (i.e., electrical power) output due to the variability of wind as an energy source may cause power companies to maintain reserve sources of electrical power (e.g., spinning but not providing power to the electrical grid). At present, penetration of wind power into the electrical grid is about two percent. As penetration of wind power increases in the coming years (e.g., to a level expected to be about 20-25 percent), the stability of the electrical grid may become increasingly dependent upon accurate prediction and reliability of wind energy as an input source.